Anything above 200,000, and the S&P 500 Index is seen dropping about 1%, according to Goldman Sachs. A JPMorgan Chase & Co. trading desk note sees the gauge as poised to potentially fall by 0.5% to 1% if the print is above 220,000.

The U.S. stock market just had another fantastic year. The broad-based S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) returned 23%, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) advanced 13%, and the technology-focused Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) surged 29% in 2024.

Good news for the U.S. economy is back to being bad for Wall Street as the S&P 500, Dow Jones industrial average and Nasdaq all post losses.

Investors appeared to have entered the new year with cautious footing, with uncertainties around future Fed rate cuts and policies under the upcoming Trump administration. Thursday marked the first day for the market in 2025 and ended with the benchmark index in red.

In other words, history says the Nasdaq could advance 16% in 2025, but most Wall Street analysts see even more upside in Nvidia ( NVDA -0.02%) and Lam Research ( LRCX -0.62%), two companies that reset their soaring share prices by completing 10-for-1 stock splits in 2024.

Rising technology stocks helped U.S. indexes recover more of their holiday-season slide that bridged the new year.