Fed, dollar and euro
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The euro hit an almost seven-week high against the dollar on Wednesday, boosted by data showing an expansion in euro zone business activity, while weaker than expected U.S. jobs data and expectations of further U.
The US dollar softened early Monday as EUR/USD and GBP/USD showed modest strength, though both remain technically uncertain. Key levels such as 1.17 for the euro, 1.3350 for the pound, and established ranges in EUR/GBP continue to guide trading outlooks.
Natixis’ overall bias is for EUR/USD to move higher into 2026, with dollar weakness driven by fading equity inflows, softer US fundamentals and the Fed’s upcoming easing cycle, while a steadier European backdrop lifts the single currency.
The U.S. dollar was steady near a five-week low after lacklustre U.S. data seemingly cemented the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, providing relief to the yen and pushing the euro to an almost seven-week high.
The US dollar weakens as the euro and British pound firm, though both remain within broader ranges ahead of next week’s FOMC decision. The analyst highlights resistance in GBP/USD, support in EUR/GBP,
The EUR/JPY cross trades on a softer note around 180.60 during the early European session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Euro (EUR) amid growing speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates when it meets in December.
The dollar regained ground against the yen on Tuesday, recovering from Monday's selloff, even as expectations for a December rate hike by the Bank of Japan lingered, while the euro edged up after data showed euro zone inflation was slightly hotter than expected.
For the euro, the key swing factor is whether downside shocks in the Eurozone can be avoided. If the economy proves resilient, Rabobank says markets may begin to price an ECB hike late in 2026 or early 2027, lending the euro some support.
The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Friday and recovers a part of the previous day's retracement slide from the 1.1680 region, or the highest level since October 17.
The EUR/USD forecast edges higher as the price extends its recovery on Thursday, pushing above1.16 level as the USD slides to 4-month lows.
Down from $1.16 to $1.15 Trade in the euro has been uneven in recent weeks, with underwhelming economic data from the Eurozone and a stronger US dollar