The gambler’s fallacy is a concept known by many names—you might hear people refer to it as the gambler’s paradox, the Monte Carlo fallacy, or the fallacy of the maturity of chances.

Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. Bryce Hoffman writes about leadership, strategy, and decision making. The gambler’s fallacy is a common ...

The world is full of random events such as 'Will tomorrow's stock prices rise or fall?', 'Will the ball be kicked left or right in a penalty kick?', and 'Will the lottery ticket I've been buying ...

The failure to understand independence lies at the heart of two famous phenomena: the gambler's fallacy and the "hot hand" in sports. When we do understand independence, we can make better ...

The desire to seek balance can create a gambler’s fallacy where past results skew perceptions on what is likely to occur (or not) in the future. This dynamic can play out in financial markets as ...

The hot-hand fallacy occurs when gamblers think that a winning streak is more likely to continue. This belief is based on the idea that having already won a number of bets improves the probability ...

Three straight trips to the final match of the season haven’t produced in his mind a Gamblers Fallacy. Overconfidence in an appeareance automatically occurring due to past successes is simply ...