Goldman lowered its recession call Wednesday just an hour after raising the chance in a note, as the trade war saga sparked whiplash on Wall Street.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said they now see a 65% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months, citing President Donald Trump’s tariffs on US trading partners.

Goldman Sachs economists said Wednesday afternoon that a recession is no longer their base case following Trump’s tariff pause. “We are reverting to our previous non-recession baseline forecast with GDP growth of 0.

US stocks tumbled following President Donald Trump's announcement last week of widespread retaliatory tariffs and a 10% universal import tax, triggering fears of rising consumer prices and a potential recession.

Given the market turmoil, it appears that the breadth and depth of President Donald Trump’s tariffs surprised all but the most pessimistic of observers. Accounting for yesterday’s surprise 90-day discount to all countries except China — as well as the hike to 125% on China — his proposals are the equivalent of a 23-percentage-point increase in the average US effective tariff rate,

Goldman Sachs revised down its economic growth forecasts for China, citing the expected negative effect of tariffs on the country’s economy and labor market. The bank now projects China’s real gross domestic product to rise 4% in 2025 and 3.

Goldman Sachs reversed its recession forecast just moments after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on his “Liberation Day”

Highlighted are what some of Seeking Alpha’s analysts are saying about if the U.S. will fall into a recession or not.