Inflation, tariffs
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Trump announces trade deal with Indonesia, 19% tariff
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A number of factors, including a lack of significant gains in auto prices, are masking the extent of the shift.
Federal Reserve governor Adriana Kugler said the Fed should hold interest rates steady for a while to come, because new trade barriers are likely to spark more inflation in the months ahead. Speaking at a housing conference in Washington,
Inflation is moving higher and the impact of tariffs are only beginning to show up in government data, likely keeping interest rates on hold.
Monetary policymakers have held off on lower interest rates for months, citing the risk of tariff-induced inflation. Several now say this week's CPI and PPI reports confirmed their suspicions.
A whiff of tariff inflation showed up in economic data this week, providing the first clues of how tariff policy might impact prices and the economy.
Current tariff collections equate to 0.1% monthly inflation, aligning with recent CPI data. See why I’m skeptical that tariffs will lead to widespread inflation.
While Tuesday's focus was on the tariff-related inflation hit to Treasuries, it's been a rough week for government bonds everywhere - especially in Japan as long-term yields there hit new highs this week ahead of the July 20 upper house election and related fiscal policy worries.