The yield curve is frequently spoken about when investors are discussing bonds and wider economics, but what precisely is it?

Key Background. In 1986, Harvey published a dissertation that linked inverted yield curves to recessions after closely studying four major economic downturns from the 1960s to the 1980s.

The longest inverted yield curve on record may finally be in the rearview mirror. The yield on the 2-year note closed at 3.651%, according to Tradeweb, lower than the 10-year yield, which settled ...

The yield curve inverted this week when yields on 2-year notes rose above the ones on 10-year notes. Yield curve inversion has been a strong predictor recession is coming, Fed research shows.

The inverted yield curve is screaming RECESSION : The Indicator from Planet Money There is one indicator that has predicted every recession since 1969, and that indicator is flashing red right now.

A so-called inverted yield curve between three-month and 10-year interest rates is considered by Wall Street as a reliable sign of an impending economic slump.

One common measure of the yield curve has hovered this year at levels last reached 40 years ago, with the yield on two-year debt roughly 0.9 percentage points higher than the yield on 10-year notes.

The yield curve's disinversion might not completely eliminate recession risks. But, for now, markets appear to be betting on ...

Specifically, they examine the so-called yield curve. When it’s “inverted,” as it has been since about mid-2022, that almost always means a US recession is looming.

The yield curve righted itself Wednesday after more than two years of a negative spread between the 10- and 2-year Treasury yields. However, the measure inverted again on Thursday.

The yield curve on U.S. government bonds has been upside down since the middle of 2022. The underlying circumstances of the yield curve's inversion, however, have changed dramatically in just the ...