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Economists See Greater Chance of Recession

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PolitiFact |
Professional analysts at JPMorgan have estimated a 60% likelihood of a recession, while Goldman Sachs and Morningstar put the odds between 40% and 50%.
Yahoo |
“Once again, President Trump is a bold man,” McCormick said.

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Economists See Greater Chance of Recession With Trump's Tariffs
Key Takeaways Economists are increasing their forecasts on the probability of a recession in the aftermath of President Donald Trump's tariffs.However, most do not think it's the most likely case yet.
What is a recession, and is it tied to stock market declines? What to know after Trump’s tariffs
During a typical recession, consumer demand drops, meaning that companies selling products and services lower their prices (or at least not raise them) in order to entice reluctant customers to spend. But Trump’s across-the-board tariffs could potentially drive price increases at the same time they send the country into a recession.
Trump treasury secretary says there's 'no reason' to anticipate recession based on tariffs
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said more than 50 nations had started negotiations with the U.S. since last Wednesday's tariff rollout.
Local economist says unless things change with tariffs, we’re likely heading into a recession
One economist told Channel 2’s Richard Elliot that a recession is inevitable. Georgia Tech economics professor Tibor Besedes specializes in international trade. He said the tariffs are based more on politics than on any economic theory and that the formula used by the White House to calculate them is fundamentally flawed.
Trump says he can’t say what will happen to markets as his team claims 50 countries are seeking tariff deals
President Donald Trump’s top economic advisers brushed off recession fears Sunday and said dozens of countries are looking to negotiate for better deals, after stocks tumbled last week following the announcement of stiff tariffs against nearly all of America’s trading partners.
Investors worry trade war will spark global recession
It could be another awful day on Wall Street after President Trump's tariffs. Investors are now worries the trade war could spark a global recession and higher inflation.
What exactly is a recession? Economists say odds of one in the US are 'very high.'
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months.” Three criteria – depth, diffusion, and duration – need to be met individually to some degree to formally identify a recession, according to the NBER.
The Independent Florida Alligator7h
‘History repeats itself’: Gators, experts weigh in on potential recession post-march madness
At the height of the Gators’ victory in the 2007 NCAA men's basketball tournament, another historical moment lurked — the 2007-2009 recession. Now as past and current Gator fans watch the 2025 game against Houston,
Business Insider23d
Experts to follow for sharp insights on recessions — and how to tell if we are in one
Fears of a recession are top of mind amid Trump's trade wars and stock market dips. Trump's tariffs and economic policies have heightened uncertainty. Leading thinkers are keeping tabs on the topic.
Morningstar23d
4 Inflation Talking Points with Larry Summers
A historical perspective is ultimately ... Go Deeper Download Morningstar’s advisor toolkit to fortify your recession resistance. Get insights on what actions and portfolio ideas add value ...
CBS News20d
How close are we to a recession, and how will we know when we get there?
two-month long recession from February to April 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although U.S. unemployment ticked up last month, to 4.1% from 4%, it remains low by historical standards.
Wall Street ends with heavy losses on fears Trump tariffs will trigger recession
S&P 500 companies lost a combined $2.4 trillion in stock market value in Thursday's selloff, their biggest one-day loss since the pandemic sent global markets into a tailspin on March 16, 2020.
ABC News27d
What is a recession, and is it possible to prepare for one?
The word "recession" seems to be popping up a lot lately ... lenders may more heavily scrutinize financials, credit history and credit score. Recessions also tend to have a negative impact ...
Yahoo Finance10d
Is Warren Buffett Worried About a Recession? History Offers a Clue for What Berkshire May Really Be Thinking About Right Now.
As of Dec. 31, Berkshire's balance sheet held $334.2 billion in cash and short-term investments -- the most in the company's history ... could be worried about a recession? Let's take a look ...
The Motley Fool20d
Is Amazon a Recession-Resistant Stock? Here's What History Says.
So, is Amazon recession-resistant? Let's look to history for some clues. When considering history, it's important to note that a growth company such as Amazon may not be the exact same player ...
Seeking Alpha18d
Is The Stock Market Predicting A Recession?
To minimize bias, it’s helpful to model stock market volatility as it relates to historical recession periods with an implied nowcast/forecast of economic contraction. On that basis, using the S ...
Reuters4d
Global brokerages raise recession odds; J.P.Morgan sees 60% chance
JPM raises recession odds from its previous estimate of 40% S&P Global, Goldman also hike US recession probability Barclays, BofA, Deutsche Bank warn of higher recession risks RBC, UBS cut S&P 500 ...
What is a recession, and when did the last recession occur in the U.S.?
President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on imports have raised concerns about a possible recession, with stock markets seeing losses and companies feeling the pinch. Trump has insisted that significant tariffs were the only way to shrink trade deficits and to help grow U.
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